The Zero Marginal Cost Society by Jeremy Rifkin

[Edward theurj Berge]

After reading the Intro and first chapter a few comments. On p. 6 he discusses how monopolies intentionally thwart competition and innovation so as to maintain their stranglehold. But he claims entrepreneurs find a way around it and end up forcing competition with their better tech and price reductions. Yet he discusses on pp. 7-9 Larry Summers 2001 paper, wherein Summers acknowledges the emerging information economy was indeed moving to near marginal cost. Summers though didn't propose something like Rifkin but instead recommended "short-term natural monopolies" (8).

Recall Summers was Obama's pick for Director of the National Economic Council. His policy suggestions were well in line with the earlier promotion of "natural monopolies," and his resume attests. And we're seeing exactly this economic philosophy at play with the FCC Chairman Wheeler's proposed pay-to-play rules, where the ISP monopolies will destroy internet neutrality. Recall that Wheeler was another Obama pick, and was a former, and will return to being, a cable and wireless lobbyist. While Obama claims to back income equality and net neutrality he appoints the likes of Summers and Wheeler who make no bones about their support of monopolies. And without net neutrality good bye to Rifkin's entire plan, which requires it to succeed.

If you haven't yet, please take action to preserve it. Here's one place and you can find several others if you but look.

[Edward theurj Berge]

Renewables are now the world's second-highest source of electricity.

[DavidM58]

Yes, but probably better to assess the data directly from the IEA press release, rather than the Daily Kos summary of that press release.

My summary is that renewables are now providing 22% of electricity, overtaking natural gas for 2nd place. Coal is still in first place, and unfortunately it's use is still rising: "electricity generated by coal reached its highest level yet at 9 613 TWh, representing 41.1% of global electricity production."

Looking closer at the 22% attributed to renewables, 75% of that number comes from hydro (which is pretty much tapped out and not growing). According to the report, only 5.4% of total electricity production is coming from non-hydro renewables.  But apparently the growth in renewables is being driven by wind and solar photovoltaics.

It is interesting to note that total electricity production is falling in the OECD countries (members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, i.e. the "developed" world), whereas it is "strongly rising" in the rest of the world.

The IEA offers more info on renewables in a free 8 page download, which is an excerpt of their 200+ page report. This document tells us that renewables are providing 13.5% of our "total primary energy supply" (TPES) (not just electricity).  That 13.5% breaks down into 2.5% from hydro, 10.4% from biofuels and waste, and 1.3% for other renewables (combining wind, solar, tidal, and geothermal).

Looking at just the pie of renewables, biofuels and waste is 73.4% of that pie, hydro is 17.8%, geothermal is 3.6%, wind is 3%, and solar is just 2.2% of the renewable energy pie.

The good news: "Growth has been especially high for solar photovoltaic and wind power, which grew at average annual rates of 46.6% and 24.8%, respectively. However, this is due to their very low bases in 1990, and production remains small. OECD countries account for most of the world production and growth of solar and wind energy."

As a whole, renewable energy has grown at a rate of 2.2% since 1990.

So in my view, not quite as rosy of a picture as painted by the Daily Kos article. 

On a lighter note, Richard Heinberg is reporting on "An Amazing New Energy Source: Introducing TREES"

[andrew]

Hi , I am one of the 10 billion integral eco modernists living in the big cities in 2050 . I've never heard of those things . How do you say it ? Trees?

[andrew]

But don't worry ; I've never heard of God either :)

[Edward theurj Berge]

You'd never see this from a Republican President. In President Obama's green energy initiative he said:

"I recently committed this country to getting 20% of our energy from renewables beyond hydroelectric power by 2030. Today, we’re announcing new public- and private-sector commitments that will add new solar capacity on more than 40 military bases. [...] We’re also going to make it even easier for individual homeowners to put solar panels on their roof. Americans are going solar and becoming more energy-efficient, not because they’re tree-huggers … but because they’re cost-cutters. [...] America generates 20 times as much solar power as we did in 2008. As well as we’re doing in wind, we’re making even more progress in solar. [...] Every three minutes another home or business in America goes solar.”

[Edward theurj Berge]

See this recent report on renewables from the International Energy Agency for the details. Some highlights:

"Renewable energy will represent the largest single source of electricity growth over the next five years, driven by falling costs and aggressive expansion in emerging economies, the IEA said Friday in an annual market report. Pointing to the great promise renewables hold for affordably mitigating climate change and enhancing energy security, the report warns governments to reduce policy uncertainties that are acting as brakes on greater deployment."

"Renewable electricity additions over the next five years will top 700 gigawatts (GW) – more than twice Japan’s current installed power capacity. They will account for almost two-thirds of net additions to global power capacity – that is, the amount of new capacity that is added, minus scheduled retirements of existing power plants. Non-hydro sources such as wind and solar photovoltaic panels (solar PV) will represent nearly half of the total global power capacity increase."

"Renewable generation costs have declined in many parts of the world due to sustained technology progress, improved financing conditions and expansion of deployment to newer markets with better resources. Announced prices for long-term generation contracts at reduced levels are emerging in areas as diverse as Brazil, India, the Middle East, South Africa and the United States. As such, some countries and regions now have the potential to leapfrog to a development paradigm mainly based on increasingly affordable renewable power. This is especially true in Sub-Saharan Africa."

"Financing remains key to achieving sustained investment. Regulatory barriers, grid constraints, and macroeconomic conditions pose challenges in many emerging economies. In industrialised countries, the rapid deployment of renewables requires scaling down fossil-fired power plants, putting incumbent utilities under pressure. Wavering policy commitments to decarbonisation and diversification in response to such effects can undermine investor confidence and retroactive changes can destroy it."

[Edward theurj Berge]

The above is why it is critical for progressives to win a majority in the next US election if we're ever going to literally save the planet. Our extinction is a very real and present danger if they do not.

[DavidM58]

From the Executive Summary of the IEA Report ("Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2015"), which you can download: 

"...But the annual deployment trend is expected to slow due to persistent policy and market integration uncertainties in some areas, notably Europe and Japan, as well as financing, access and integration challenges in developing countries. Consequently, global growth under the Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report (MTRMR) main case forecast is not as fast as it could be and falls short of what’s needed to put renewables on track to meet longer-term climate change objectives.

However, enhanced policies driven by the energy security, local pollution and climate benefits of renewables can trigger a virtuous cycle, putting development on a more firm path to meet long-term climate change goals. This report’s accelerated case projection assesses the impacts of possible policy changes in key countries, which could accelerate cumulative renewable power growth by 25% with rising annual deployment."

As I read it, they're actually expecting a declining rate of net additional renewable capacity (not growing as fast) in the next few years. But in the most optimistic scenario, if all of the stakeholders would commit themselves, there is potential for continuing the rate of expanded capacity.

In this graph you can see the "main case" projection - the bars declining after 2015, vs. the "accelerated case" if everyone does what they could and should - the green line.

[Edward theurj Berge]

Yes, the last paragraph I quote addresses this, that if we don't have the right reps in government the case could easily be lost. So that's why I said it is critical for we the people to get active in voting in the right reps, and then holding them accountable to initiate the type of govt. programs to promote this transition.

Like Sanders says, this is about we the people getting involved, not about him be a 'leader.' If we just sit back and hope our leaders will do the right thing then we are to blame for the impending doom. Which, btw, is the transition from capitalism to the commons, from individual liberty to autonomous individuals working for the common good, from post/modernity to an integral age.

[DavidM58]

Yes, like the last two elections where it seemed that many folks thought it was enough to elect Obama, and that "Change" would automatically flow from there. 

theurj said:

Like Sanders says, this is about we the people getting involved, not about him be a 'leader.' If we just sit back and hope our leaders will do the right thing then we are to blame for the impending doom. 

[Edward theurj Berge]

Excerpt from Rifkin's latest HuffPo post:

"The Earth's ecosystems cannot readjust to a disruptive change in the planet's water cycle in such a brief moment in time and are under increasing stress, with some on the verge of collapse. The destabilization of ecosystem dynamics around the world has now pushed the biosphere into the sixth extinction event of the past 450 million years of life on Earth. In each of the five previous extinctions, Earth's climate reached a critical tipping point, throwing the ecosystems into a positive feedback loop, leading to a quick wipeout of the planet's biodiversity. On average, it took upward of 10 million years to recover the lost biodiversity. Biologists tell us that we could see the extinction of half the Earth's species by the end of the current century, resulting in a barren new era that could last for millions of years. James Hansen, the former head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, forecasts a rise in the Earth's temperature of 4 degrees Celsius between now and the turn of the century -- and with it, the end of human civilization as we've come to know it. The only hope, according to Hansen, is to reduce the current concentration of carbon in the atmosphere from 400 ppm to 350 ppm or less."

[andrew]

Yes, the horror is upon us:( The first conscious beings that will witness their own extinction ( or partial ) brought on by their own actions; actions that were preventable . I agree with Rifkin that it may be possible to get a small part of the population ( maybe a billion) to live in a hi tech eco society in the next 30 years . That may be possible ( mainly for an Uber elite ); but we are no where near being able to implement those infrastructures on a global scale . Which means those billion folks are doomed also unless they go underground literally . 

But again, let the Internet take note that a rather simple dude in Vancouver in 2015 offered a pragmatic and rather easily implemented solution that could be 'installed' now . it was an idea based on giving as many people as much choice as possible premised on the TRUTH of the situation being told to the earths inhabitants by the governing elite . Rifkin's would be my first economy based on eco-law implementation for the wealthy whereby they will implement the aforementioned high tech green vision . The rest of humanity would be asked to give up all polluting lifestyles in exchange for ALL their basic needs being met via a Global Commons currency ( this would be about 5 billion or so in the next 30 years ) . What this would do is buy us time whereby we could all work together to solve this dire predicament . I guess I am combining Rifkin and JMG here in my own way . 

Now why none of this will happen and the worst will come upon us : 

- the earth has been turned into a casino 

-false religion has cried wolf too many times in the past 

-the behaviour of the worlds leaders makes it appear that there is something else going on on this earth ( I say BINGO! on that one ). 

-when the masses start to chatter like they must have from 1900 to 1916 and start going WTF?( the internet has provided the means of that chatter this time ) ; the troops get sent marching orders . 30,000 NATO troops just deployed . It appears no one gets to challenge the central banking/fiat currency cartels :(

BTW : I know a thing about feedback loops ! One can feel it; you can sense it coming , the guitar starts to vibrate ever so much; and then it builds and builds and you start to hear this sound, and then after a minute chaos erupts out of the speakers and all sonic hell breaks loose and at that point you just throw the guitar down and run ! lol Not exactly the same but similar enough .